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  • Optimising a public policy decision

    Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between policy options that are each subject to uncertainty. Individual uncertainties might be relatively well understood but it can be difficult to assess the combined effect of multiple uncertainties affecting both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to model the aggregate effect of multiple uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic. The purpose was to assist policy makers to optimise their decisions in the context of tight political deadlines.

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  • Breaking decision paralysis

    A client wished to increase the ventilation capacity of an underground mine to allow the working area to be expanded. A prefeasibility study had become bogged down with disagreements about major design criteria and trade-offs. Broadleaf was engaged to facilitate a quantitative risk assessment of the initial plans. The process exposed the important decisions that had to be settled before a firm plan could be developed. This helped to break the deadlock so the study could proceed.

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  • COVID Safe music education and performance

    Throughout the world education has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is especially so with music education where, either singly or in ensembles, children and young adults learn how to master their instruments and play together in orchestras and bands. This is a particularly challenging environment for infection control, as it is difficult to require social distancing and mask wearing for groups of young people from different families and different schools. Particularly for wind instruments, where masks can’t be worn, the aerosol particles produced by an infected musician can carry viruses for a considerable distance. Grant Purdy has worked with Melbourne Youth Orchestras (MYO) for many years. This year he has helped them develop a strategy to continue to rehearse and explore music safely.

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  • Pre-bid risks for a large construction contract

    This case shows how qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty were used when preparing a response to a large, complex request for tender. The aim was to assist the bidders to understand the risks they would face and the implications for their businesses if their tender were accepted, and to develop a realistic view of the budget and contingency they would need. This helped them to develop a negotiating strategy, and to set an appropriate bid price.

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  • Fire safety for a gas drainage plant

    This case describes an investigation into the fire safety requirements of a plant processing methane-rich waste gas from nearby mines. It demonstrates the value of tailoring the fire safety advice for the circumstances. In this case, instead of a detailed quantitative assessment of all possible fire scenarios, a comprehensive qualitative review of the fire scenarios and the general principles for their management was undertaken.

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  • Replacing a high-voltage power line

    This case study examines a quantitative risk analysis of the capital costs of a high-voltage power enhancement project. It illustrates the value of integrating quantitative analysis into project workflows, and how the outcomes from the analysis can assist in allocating contingencies to cost items for project cost control. It also demonstrates that the assumptions about the shapes of the distributions used in quantitative analyses may not always be important in terms of their impacts on the outcomes from the analysis.

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  • Security upgrade

    As part of our routine web site maintenance, we have upgraded the Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) certificate on our site. This ensures communications between your browser and our web server are encrypted.

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  • Identifying and addressing fraud in procurement

    This case study outlines risk management activities associated with potential fraud and corruption in the procurement function of a public-sector entity. The aim was to identify and determine the priority of risks associated with fraud and corruption, and to ensure that appropriate controls were in place or identified for future treatment. While this case is set in the context of a government agency, most of the lessons are relevant to any organisation.

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  • Upgrading control systems in an oilfield

    This case describes a risk assessment associated with a technical program to upgrade equipment and control systems across a major oilfield. It demonstrates the relationships between program, project and headline risks, and the value of generic key elements for structuring risk management activities. It also notes that a program risk assessment may help to identify and focus attention on improvements to broader aspects of organizational performance, far beyond the program that initiated the discussion.

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  • Options for mine ventilation

    This case describes a fast, high-level review of mine ventilation options. It used Kepner Tregoe analysis to focus on the ability of the options to achieve project goals, providing clarity and a sound rationale for management decisions. If straightforward approaches are sufficient, then there is no need to over-complicate the process or invest effort in greater detail.

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