This tutorial is drawn from Broadleaf’s long experience with project range analysis, also referred to as quantitative risk analysis or probabilistic risk analysis. It describes some key lessons about project range analysis, and what constitutes good practice. The material covers the analysis of both costs and schedules; the same principles apply to both.
Read moreThere has been discussion recently about the importance of water in mining activities, including the impact of mining on water sources, the associated effects on approvals for new mines, and the implications for mine water management. In this case study, a preliminary hazard and operability (HAZOP) study of a mine expansion project identified potentially major risks associated with a large water pipeline near a village. A simple scenario-based risk assessment, conducted quickly by a small team, generated a range of improvement options for pipeline design and construction. Simple approaches can generate excellent results when used appropriately. It is important not to short-cut the risk management process by eliminating any of the steps, but the steps themselves can be tailored according to the project’s scope and need.
Read moreThere has been a lot of discussion about climate change recently, so we've prepared a relevant case study from our archives. It outlines a risk assessment that examined the effects of climate change on a rural shire in Australia. The case demonstrates the use of climate scenarios, and risk assessment over short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons. It uses an extended risk analysis template as a continuing record of important supporting information for justifying treatment responses, some of which may relate to risks with impacts only in the far distant future but that require action in the short term to avert problems or to build resilience.
Read moreThis case illustrates the value of qualitative and quantitative risk analyses in refinery upgrades that had to be completed within the strict time constraints imposed by tight shutdown windows. Schedule impacts drove the qualitative assessment, and a quantitative analysis of uncertainty associated with the schedule was completed. Several forms of sensitivity analysis were used to highlight where additional project effort might be worthwhile.
Read moreThis case describes a simple project risk assessment undertaken to initiate formal risk management on a large expansion program for a port that handled bulk commodities for export. It demonstrates the value of tailoring the risk assessment for the circumstances. In this case, a modified pre-mortem process was used for risk identification, and the corporate scales for operational risk analysis were adjusted to better suit the project.
Read moreThis case concerns the effects of reducing the number of personnel allocated to each shift at three industrial plants. The reduction was proposed in response to cost savings imposed on the wider business by the need to remain competitive. Detailed preparation and close stakeholder involvement were important factors in developing useful outcomes.
Read moreA rail operator was investigating options for improved locomotive fuel management, one of which included programmable logic controllers (PLCs). While the proposed PLC technology had a widely installed industrial base, none had been fitted to the company’s locomotives at the time of this study and local industry knowledge of applications like this was limited. We conducted a risk assessment of the new technology at an early stage of the design, ensuring stakeholders’ concerns were captured and acceptance for the technology was gained before the company made a major investment in production.
Read moreOrganisations use root cause analysis to learn lessons from both successes and failures, and then to develop plans that will improve performance. Broadleaf's new tutorial describes consistent and systematic methods that can be adopted for learning lessons and generating improvements. It describes two methods: fishbone analysis, and cause and effect analysis.
Read moreMy good friend and former colleague at the University of Southampton, Professor Emeritus Chris Chapman, has written a new book, 'Enlightened Planning', published by Routledge on 10 July 2019. I was delighted to accept the invitation from Chris to write an endorsement for his book. Dale Cooper
Read moreThis case study describes risk assessment activities to support a large capital project in the mining sector, first to assist in selecting a technology option and later as an input to the Board’s decision on granting formal project sanction and Notice to Proceed. It demonstrates the value of comparative risk assessment, a staged approach to setting priorities for addressing uncertainty, and the role of risk management in supporting project decisions.
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