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  • Correlation in quantitative risk analysis

    Uncertain quantities can be correlated by a dependence on a common source of variation. Modelling these correlations in quantitative risk analysis must be done with great care. Ignoring correlation in quantitative models can generate outcomes that are wrong, sometimes significantly so, and that have the potential to mislead the users of those models. This tutorial note examines correlation, and practical methods of incorporating it in quantitative risk analysis models.

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  • Options for a pharmaceutical dispensary

    A pharmaceutical company required a new dispensary at an existing manufacturing facility, to comply with evolving regulations while at the same time improving quality and efficiency in dispensing. This case outlines how a structured process was used to evaluate options for the dispensary, where the raw material for prescription and other medications are prepared for manufacturing. The focus on company objectives and criteria helped to achieve consensus among internal stakeholders with slightly different requirements and priorities.

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  • Extreme project schedule over run

    There is often a sense that project schedule risk distributions fail to exhibit the long right-hand tails that experience suggests should show up in a realistic assessment of schedule risk. This extended tutorial demonstrates quantitatively that unexpected extensions of time might arise not from unforeseen risks or understated risks, nor from a bias towards optimism or over-confidence, but through a systematic interaction between the risks that are taken into account by conventional schedule risk modelling and firefighting behaviour stimulated by schedule slippage.

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  • Land use near a major hazard facility

    When a proposal to build an aged care facility was received by a local council, a nearby major hazard facility lodged an objection to it. The council asked Broadleaf to investigate whether or not the objection was justified, and to be an expert witness in a formal public hearing. Our expertise in land use safety planning and regulatory requirements was useful in this process. In particular, we were able to guide the council to ask the right questions of the owner of the refinery to achieve a satisfactory planning outcome.

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  • Cost uncertainty in a cable-laying contract

    This case study describes a quantitative risk analysis undertaken with a construction company that was preparing a bid to design and construct fibre optic broadband infrastructure in a regional area. The purpose of the analysis was to understand the uncertainty in the initial cost estimate for the activity, and to contribute to the company’s decisions about whether to bid and at what price. The case demonstrates the role of quantitative analysis of uncertainty as part of a contractor’s bid development process.

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  • Strategic program to expand a portfolio of health products

    This case describes how an international pharmaceutical company used risk management to examine a significant long-term strategic agreement with another organisation in a complementary medical sector, for the purpose of developing improvement actions to enhance its success. The case discusses how the process was planned and conducted, and how the company’s enterprise risk management processes were tailored for the specific strategic and implementation decisions that were involved. It also discusses how the company made sense of the large amount of information generated in a series of risk-related workshops, to develop a practical and manageable set of improvement plans.

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  • Optimising a public policy decision

    Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between policy options that are each subject to uncertainty. Individual uncertainties might be relatively well understood but it can be difficult to assess the combined effect of multiple uncertainties affecting both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to model the aggregate effect of multiple uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic. The purpose was to assist policy makers to optimise their decisions in the context of tight political deadlines.

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  • Breaking decision paralysis

    A client wished to increase the ventilation capacity of an underground mine to allow the working area to be expanded. A prefeasibility study had become bogged down with disagreements about major design criteria and trade-offs. Broadleaf was engaged to facilitate a quantitative risk assessment of the initial plans. The process exposed the important decisions that had to be settled before a firm plan could be developed. This helped to break the deadlock so the study could proceed.

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  • COVID Safe music education and performance

    Throughout the world education has been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is especially so with music education where, either singly or in ensembles, children and young adults learn how to master their instruments and play together in orchestras and bands. This is a particularly challenging environment for infection control, as it is difficult to require social distancing and mask wearing for groups of young people from different families and different schools. Particularly for wind instruments, where masks can’t be worn, the aerosol particles produced by an infected musician can carry viruses for a considerable distance. Grant Purdy has worked with Melbourne Youth Orchestras (MYO) for many years. This year he has helped them develop a strategy to continue to rehearse and explore music safely.

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  • Pre-bid risks for a large construction contract

    This case shows how qualitative and quantitative assessments of uncertainty were used when preparing a response to a large, complex request for tender. The aim was to assist the bidders to understand the risks they would face and the implications for their businesses if their tender were accepted, and to develop a realistic view of the budget and contingency they would need. This helped them to develop a negotiating strategy, and to set an appropriate bid price.

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