Dr Dale Cooper spoke at the Risk Engineering Society Conference, RISK 2023, held in Brisbane Meanjin on 7-8 September 2023. His presentation summarised the role of quantitative analysis of uncertainty in governance and decision making in large projects.
It focused on the interaction between quantitative analysis and tollgate decisions at the end of each project phase, including the contribution of quantitative analysis to the decision support package (DSP) used by an investment review committee. It noted the different contributions of distributional outputs, sensitivity outputs and input data about uncertainties to specific parts of the DSP.
Finally, it noted that cost and schedule uncertainty may not be the most important factors if the main focus of decisions is on project value.
You can find more information about the presentation, and the presentation slides, here.