Project cost risk assessment methods range from very basic ideas that were in use in the 1930s to advanced recent developments. Approaches now regarded as good practice were understood in the 1970s but could not be adopted with the limited computing facilities of the time. Simpler methods were employed because they could be implemented with pencil and paper.
As computers became more powerful and accessible, instead of improved methods being implemented, simple manual methods already in use were automated and made more elaborate. Incumbency has since given them a respect they do not deserve, locking users into inefficient and unrealistic forms of analysis.
This webinar sets out the history that led us to this position and provides advice on how to move forward with better methods of cost risk analysis. By shifting our focus from the predefined structures of flawed tools and methods to the real nature of cost uncertainty in projects, we can arrive at more confident contingency assessments with less effort.