News

  • The colour of hydrogen

    As the planet confronts global warming, hydrogen will become an increasingly important energy source, affecting many sectors in which Broadleaf works. Hydrogen is important because it can be environmentally friendly: it can be produced from renewables and, whether used for combustion or in fuel cells, its primary by-product is water, rather than the carbon dioxide that is generated by burning hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is described in different ways, according to the energy sources and feedstocks used to produce it and the kinds of by-products that are generated. This tutorial summarises the colour descriptions attributed to specific forms of hydrogen production and outlines some of the associated technologies.

    Read more

  • Our work with local government

    We have had several enquires recently from local government organisations, for whom we have undertaken a range of assignments over many years. Our activities have covered most aspects of risk management, including enterprise risk management (ERM) and qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. We have prepared a new summary, with links to related work with utilities and climate change.

    Read more

  • Correlation in quantitative risk analysis

    Uncertain quantities can be correlated by a dependence on a common source of variation. Modelling these correlations in quantitative risk analysis must be done with great care. Ignoring correlation in quantitative models can generate outcomes that are wrong, sometimes significantly so, and that have the potential to mislead the users of those models. This tutorial note examines correlation, and practical methods of incorporating it in quantitative risk analysis models.

    Read more

  • Options for a pharmaceutical dispensary

    A pharmaceutical company required a new dispensary at an existing manufacturing facility, to comply with evolving regulations while at the same time improving quality and efficiency in dispensing. This case outlines how a structured process was used to evaluate options for the dispensary, where the raw material for prescription and other medications are prepared for manufacturing. The focus on company objectives and criteria helped to achieve consensus among internal stakeholders with slightly different requirements and priorities.

    Read more

  • Extreme project schedule over run

    There is often a sense that project schedule risk distributions fail to exhibit the long right-hand tails that experience suggests should show up in a realistic assessment of schedule risk. This extended tutorial demonstrates quantitatively that unexpected extensions of time might arise not from unforeseen risks or understated risks, nor from a bias towards optimism or over-confidence, but through a systematic interaction between the risks that are taken into account by conventional schedule risk modelling and firefighting behaviour stimulated by schedule slippage.

    Read more

  • Land use near a major hazard facility

    When a proposal to build an aged care facility was received by a local council, a nearby major hazard facility lodged an objection to it. The council asked Broadleaf to investigate whether or not the objection was justified, and to be an expert witness in a formal public hearing. Our expertise in land use safety planning and regulatory requirements was useful in this process. In particular, we were able to guide the council to ask the right questions of the owner of the refinery to achieve a satisfactory planning outcome.

    Read more

  • Cost uncertainty in a cable-laying contract

    This case study describes a quantitative risk analysis undertaken with a construction company that was preparing a bid to design and construct fibre optic broadband infrastructure in a regional area. The purpose of the analysis was to understand the uncertainty in the initial cost estimate for the activity, and to contribute to the company’s decisions about whether to bid and at what price. The case demonstrates the role of quantitative analysis of uncertainty as part of a contractor’s bid development process.

    Read more

  • Strategic program to expand a portfolio of health products

    This case describes how an international pharmaceutical company used risk management to examine a significant long-term strategic agreement with another organisation in a complementary medical sector, for the purpose of developing improvement actions to enhance its success. The case discusses how the process was planned and conducted, and how the company’s enterprise risk management processes were tailored for the specific strategic and implementation decisions that were involved. It also discusses how the company made sense of the large amount of information generated in a series of risk-related workshops, to develop a practical and manageable set of improvement plans.

    Read more

  • Optimising a public policy decision

    Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between policy options that are each subject to uncertainty. Individual uncertainties might be relatively well understood but it can be difficult to assess the combined effect of multiple uncertainties affecting both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to model the aggregate effect of multiple uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic. The purpose was to assist policy makers to optimise their decisions in the context of tight political deadlines.

    Read more

  • Breaking decision paralysis

    A client wished to increase the ventilation capacity of an underground mine to allow the working area to be expanded. A prefeasibility study had become bogged down with disagreements about major design criteria and trade-offs. Broadleaf was engaged to facilitate a quantitative risk assessment of the initial plans. The process exposed the important decisions that had to be settled before a firm plan could be developed. This helped to break the deadlock so the study could proceed.

    Read more
Subscribe via RSS