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Estimating the capital cost of a new dam
A state-owned corporation proposed to build a new water supply dam to augment existing sources. We helped the company to examine the construction cost estimate for the new dam, and to identify and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the estimate. We prepared a quantitative risk model and generated a range of realistically likely construction cost outcomes, to assist in determining the confidence that could be placed in any specific cost target...
Read moreAssessing operations risks at a remote mine site
...ement system. An integrated approach to all aspects of risk management was promoted and accepted by the workforce. The involvement of a wide range of people from all areas of the operation in the original risk workshops was an important factor in gaining acceptance for these initiatives. After a year of implementation activity, the Mine Manager summarised the effect of risk management on mine operations in this way in a presentation to the Board:...
Read moreRisk assessment for a sporting association
...ironment, while at the same time these deficiencies limited its ability to promote a safe and enjoyable environment for prospective new members. Treatment strategies centred on the need to implement: Improved safety measures More effective communication More effective education and awareness programs More effective pre-race scrutineering Random audits More consistent delivery of coaching courses Strategies to increase the number of qualified coach...
Read morePalisade Regional Risk Conference, Sydney
...re were three case studies: Using @Risk for setting tariffs for geothermal power Simulation models for interest rate, FX rate and commodity prices Uses of the Decision Tools Suite in corporate valuation. The two software demonstrations from Palisade were particularly interesting. They concentrated on parts of the Decision Tools Suite other than @Risk: Top Rank, Precision Tree, Evolver and RISKOptimiser. What was most noticeable about the Palisade...
Read moreBeta PERT origins
...decisions over fifty years ago are no longer relevant given the computing power we now have at our disposal. Despite this, the Beta PERT has been used to build project risk models for so long that it has become part of the furniture, leading many to believe that it is in some way the natural or correct distribution for this type of work. In fact, its use for project modelling has no fundamental mathematical, statistical or empirical justification...
Read moreRisk management for resource companies
...and so on. Quantitative risk analysis that used to require heavy computing power has become accessible to anyone with a PC and the right skills. With the proper techniques, it is possible to draw all the risks in a project together within a single financial and economic analysis. This lifts an integrated view of the uncertainty affecting a project out of the realm of 'gut feel' and unsupported judgement and into a transparent and clearly documente...
Read moreOptions for mine ventilation
...nto the mine working area; extracted methane was to be used for generating power. Three shortlisted gas extraction options were being considered, with design and engineering progressed to concept level. Time pressures required that a preferred option be selected quickly. The three options were: Surface bore: drill from the surface into an unmined area in the seam and then mine into the borehole to create the connection; all material is removed at...
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