Palisade Regional Risk Conference, Sydney

I spent an enjoyable and instructive day at the Palisade Regional Risk Conference in Sydney on 21 August 2014, hosted by Duncan Hickman, Palisade's Regional Sales Manager.

There were three case studies:

  • Using @Risk for setting tariffs for geothermal power
  • Simulation models for interest rate, FX rate and commodity prices
  • Uses of the Decision Tools Suite in corporate valuation.

The two software demonstrations from Palisade were particularly interesting. They concentrated on parts of the Decision Tools Suite other than @Risk: Top Rank, Precision Tree, Evolver and RISKOptimiser.

What was most noticeable about the Palisade presentations was their focus on using the tools to support decisions rather than as technical artefacts. This aligns with Broadleaf's approach to tools like this: most of the effort in solving a problem is related to understanding uncertainty and where it arises, gathering information and interpreting outcomes, with only a small proportion of time spent on modeling itself.

Dale Cooper

Only 10-20% of the effort should go on modeling