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Optimising a public policy decision
..., benefits and the extent to which one might exceed the other. Despite the complexity of the deterministic models, the assignment was able to be completed within a few days by preparing initial quantitative models quickly and determining from the sensitivity analysis which of the many uncertainties warranted close attention by the expert groups involved. Political deadlines were met, and the chosen policy option has been supported subsequently by...
Read moreImplications of climate change for an agriculture agency
...This case study illustrates the use of iterative analysis to cope with the complexity of climate change scenarios.The agency is a government department charged with supporting, developing and enhancing the agriculture sector, including supporting agricultural exports and international market access. It is also responsible for regulating biosecurity, food safety, animal welfare, licensing and compliance, as well as coordinating planning for, respon...
Read moreStrategic context for a horticulture business
This case study illustrates the similarities between the risk management step of 'establishing the context' and the strategic planning process of 'environmental scanning'. It outlines the business context for a horticulture company, developed as part of its strategic planning process. The company has been established for many years. It produces, packs and markets fruit, with a focus on premium fruit for the retail market. It owns substantial appl...
Read moreEstimating the capital cost of a new dam
...hat make up a project’s aggregate costs are uncertain, whether because the complexity and scale of the work has not been specified exactly in advance or because only quoted rates have been obtained from the market and these might change when firm orders are placed. Some projects are also subject to uncertain events with the potential to add lump sums to the costs. These might be unlikely events that cannot be addressed by contract terms, hedging o...
Read moreEnhancing HV power distribution
...hat make up a project’s aggregate costs are uncertain, whether because the complexity and scale of the work has not been specified exactly in advance or because only quoted rates have been obtained from the market. Some projects also include uncertain events with the potential to add lump sums to the costs; these are often unlikely events that cannot be addressed by contract terms, hedging or insurance. To assess the uncertainties in the project’s...
Read moreLessons learned from a major plant shutdown
Broadleaf was commissioned to conduct a root cause analysis workshop to help a global mining group learn lessons after a major plant shutdown and refurbishment. This involved a one-day workshop with company employees and representatives from several contractors. Over 62 separate lessons were generated. The group developed actions to prevent failures and encourage successes in future similar projects.Background A global mining group conducted a sh...
Read moreEvaluating and enhancing risk management in an international business
...k and tools to manage risk associated with an organisation of its size and complexity, its risk profile and risk attitude (appetite) The drivers of that attitude, based on what are recognised as the ‘key success factors’ and growth objectives for the organisation The perceived usefulness of the current risk management process and its degree of integration into key decision-making processes; The strengths and limitations of the other approaches to...
Read moreRisk-adjusted forecast of EBIT
...early and methodically, what was known and what was uncertain. Despite the complexity of the situation they faced, this was achieved efficiently and made only limited demands of the team’s time. The understanding they came to through this process improved their ability to manage the business and removed the burden of well meaning but fruitless discussion and argument that often surrounds such difficult business management challenges. Risk-adjusted...
Read moreClimate change
...to risk assessment into a planned, two-stage process that accommodates the complexity of climate change risk management. It remains consistent with the standard ISO 31000, illustrated in Figure 1. More details about our approach are provided here. Our work with the Australian government Broadleaf has been at the forefront of exploring the application of risk assessment methods to risks associated with climate change. In partnership with Marsden Ja...
Read moreInformation and communications technology
...rt Risk management makes a strong contribution to any complex project. The complexity and volatility of ICT projects means that they often face greater challenges than other projects, so they can benefit greatly from the application of formal risk management techniques. Risk management brings improved information, more realistic plans and better communication about an uncertain future. It is also an effective means of bringing potentially adversar...
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