Broadleaf Capital International is a specialist risk management consultancy. Our expert team brings decades of experience, leading methods and a deep understanding of uncertainty and how it can be understood and managed. We operate around the world.
Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between options that are each subject to uncertainty in both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to support decision makers by modelling the uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic.
Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between policy options that are each subject to uncertainty. Individual uncertainties might be relatively well understood but it can be difficult to assess the combined effect of multiple uncertainties affecting both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to model the aggregate effect of multiple uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic. The purpose was to assist policy makers to optimise their decisions in the context of tight political deadlines.
This tutorial is drawn from Broadleaf’s long experience with project range analysis, also referred to as quantitative risk analysis or probabilistic risk analysis. It describes some key lessons about project range analysis, and what constitutes good practice. The material covers the analysis of both costs and schedules; the same principles apply to both.