Creating value from uncertainty

Broadleaf Capital International is a specialist risk management consultancy. Our expert team brings decades of experience, leading methods and a deep understanding of uncertainty and how it can be understood and managed. We operate around the world.

Latest from Broadleaf

  • Optimising a public policy decision

    Public policy decision-making often involves choosing between policy options that are each subject to uncertainty. Individual uncertainties might be relatively well understood but it can be difficult to assess the combined effect of multiple uncertainties affecting both costs and benefits. This case study describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation to model the aggregate effect of multiple uncertainties associated with policy options for dealing with a potential animal health pandemic. The purpose was to assist policy makers to optimise their decisions in the context of tight political deadlines.