The agency is a government department charged with supporting agriculture as well as regulation, disaster planning and recovery. The agency wanted to identify threats and opportunities associated with climate change to help it develop strategic and business plans. A qualitative risk assessment was undertaken in two stages. This case study illustrates the use of iterative analysis to cope with the complexity of climate change scenarios.
Creating value from uncertainty
Broadleaf Capital International is a specialist risk management consultancy. Our expert team brings decades of experience, leading methods and a deep understanding of uncertainty and how it can be understood and managed. We operate around the world.
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We are sometimes asked if we are really an international company. Here is a quick summary: we have worked on the ground in 41 countries; we have worked with companies and on projects located in 56 countries; and members of our team worked in another 12 countries before they joined Broadleaf.
Dr Dale Cooper spoke at the Risk Engineering Society Conference, RISK 2023, held in Brisbane Meanjin on 7-8 September 2023. His paper provided a short summary of the role of quantitative analysis of uncertainty in governance and decision making in large projects. It focused on the interaction between quantitative analysis and tollgate decisions at the end of each project phase, including the contribution of quantitative analysis to the decision support package (DSP) used by an investment review committee. It noted the different contributions of distributional outputs, sensitivity outputs and input data about uncertainties to specific parts of the DSP. Finally, it noted that cost and schedule uncertainty may not be the most important factors if the main focus of decisions is on project value.