This case study describes the conduct and outcomes of an initial scoping risk assessment of the Sydney Olympic Velodrome, undertaken in 1994 in the early stages of Olympic facilities planning. The intention was to facilitate a short brainstorming session, involving the main Government stakeholders in the development of the velodrome, to provide input to a subsequent value management study.
Creating value from uncertainty
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We assume complexity means risk and a combination of scale and complexity is sometimes used as an indicator of project uncertainty. Complexity, scale and risk are bound together in the way we think. It may be, though, that the risk associated with complex projects is not just due to complexity itself but also the way we choose to deal with it.
This paper examines the structure of cost uncertainty in an estimate and demonstrates how it can be addressed by separating expert judgements from numerical calculations and linking the two together using risk factors that represent uncertainty in major cost drivers. It sets out some principles for deciding what to address by means of expert judgement and what to implement as numerical calculations.