A contractor was preparing a commercial bid to construct a 220/110 kV electricity sub-station. This case describes a quantitative analysis conducted to provide an estimate of the effects of potential events on project cost outcomes, as an input to the commercial bid pricing decision.
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RiskNZ, formerly the New Zealand Society for Risk Management, will be holding its conference in Wellington NZ on 17-18 August 2017. The conference title is Repositioning Risk Management. Dr Dale Cooper will be presenting a keynote address on 'Governance, leadership and enterprise risk management' on 17 August, and chairing a conference wrap-up session on 18 August.
Complexity is mentioned in professional discussions from astrophysics to zoology. There is a sense that previous generations led a simpler existence and did not have to deal with it. Understanding whether this is true or not can help to put into perspective present day efforts to handle complexity. A complete history of complexity and efforts to cope with it would be an enormous undertaking but useful insights can be gained from an interesting paper written almost sixty years ago. In language that would not seem out of place today, Charles E. Lindblom described the dilemma of addressing systems with no ordered cause-effect relationships using methods based on systems that do have ordered cause-effect relationships. The challenges he described still exist but there are now ways to address complexity directly rather than try to fight against it or pretend it does not exist.